(Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
The 49ers (11-3) lost another close game in the final seconds on Sunday night, falling 29-22 (with a final-play lateral touchdown skewing the scoreline) to the Atlanta Falcons (5-9). Sunday’s loss was different than San Francisco’s previous two in that it was not against a top-tier opponent and was the result of the 49ers playing completely below their standard.
Yet, for the first time in six years, the 49ers are back in the playoffs, thanks to the failings of the Los Angeles Rams (8-6), who were battered by the Dallas Cowboys 44-21 on the road. What that means is the 49ers are still in control of their own destiny in terms of clinching the NFC West, but it got exponentially more difficult.
The scenarios
Scenario No. 1: 49ers win out
If San Francisco beats the Rams at home next Saturday and beats the Seattle Seahawks (11-3) on the road in Week 17, they will clinch the NFC West division title regardless of what anyone else does. This is the saving grace of the 49ers’ success; they have guaranteed a playoff spot and can still win the division without anyone else’s help.
Scenario No. 2: 49ers lose to Rams, beat Seahawks
The most likely result of this scenario is that the Seahawks would clinch the NFC West next week. They are facing the 3-9-1 Arizona Cardinals at home on Sunday, and if the 49ers lose to the Rams and the Seahawks win, the division title would be theirs. If the Seahawks were to be surprised by the Cardinals and lose, however, the result of the Rams game would be moot. A 49ers win in Seattle would still secure the NFC West title.
But this is where the 49ers were hurt by Sunday’s loss. They could have afforded a loss next week against the Rams and still clinched the division with a win in Seattle, which is always how the season was likely to end once the second half results start playing. Now, they likely need to win out.
Scenario No. 3: 49ers beat Rams, lose to Seahawks
The Seahawks would still claim the division with both teams at 12-4, but the Seahawks having won both meetings. If the 49ers had tied the Seahawks in their first meeting, they could have clinched the NFC West in this scenario, but such is not the case. A loss in Seattle means the NFC West will be won by the Seahawks.
Scenario No. 4: 49ers lose to Rams, lose to Seahawks
This gives San Francisco no chance of winning the division, and could see them drop to the sixth, rather than fifth seed that they would likely be in, depending on what the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers do.
Here’s how this other set of scenarios would play out:
Vikings beat Packers in Week 16, beat Bears in Week 17; Packers beat Lions in Week 17
The 49ers would be the sixth seed in this scenario, with the Vikings and Packers both at 12-4 and the 49ers at 11-5.
Vikings beat Packers in Week 16, lose to Bears in Week 17; Packers any result versus Lions in Week 17
This is a bizarre scenario. If the 49ers were to lose out and the Vikings were to beat the Packers, they’d be guaranteed to finish as the sixth seed, regardless of what the Packers do against the Vikings.
Vikings lose to Packers in Week 16, beat Bears in Week 17; Packers any result versus Lions in Week 17
This would guarantee the 49ers finish as the fifth seed (and likely face the Dallas Cowboys in Dallas).